It's now been four months since Ethiopia's brave new reformist Prime Minister, Abiy Ahmed, took power in a country until then classed as an 'authoritarian regime'.
In that time, he has so far:
And now, numerous Ethiopians abroad in the West have decided their homeland is now good enough for them to return.
So now that the country's political situation has improved so drastically, could Ethiopia's governing principle of Ethnic Federalism actually become a model, that is when it is applied with real Democracy? And just what is Ethnic Federalism?
Some History
Ethiopia, much like India, Yugoslavia, or the former Austro-Hungarian Empire, is a multi-ethnic, multi-national and multi-lingual country. However, it has only been a Federation since 1991, when the country's Soviet backed Communist Regime , the Derg, was overthrown by a coalition of rebel forces from different ethnic groups.
Until then, both under the Monarchy (pre-1974) and the Derg, Ethiopia was essentially a Unitary Empire, dominated by the Amharas who make up 26% of the population, the ethnic group who created and expanded the Empire in the first place. Amharic has thus been the country's official language and Lingua Franca, just as German was in the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
However, in 1991, the Civil War which had seen a multitude of different ethnic nationalist rebels fighting the Derg, ended when a rebel coalition called the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), cooperating with other forces, seized the capital, Addis Ababa.
It was this group, formally a coalition of different ethnic groupings but dominated by their Tigray coalition parter (the Tigrays being 6% of the country's overall population) who, upon seizing power, decided that the country was to be a Federation of different states, just like the US or Canada.
And in this new Ethiopia, the state boundaries were to be drawn deliberately to reflect the boundaries between the different ethnic groups, so that each ethnic group would get their own autonomous state for themselves, a 'country within a country' of sorts.
Smaller ethnic groups, on the other hand, got to share states with other small ethnic groups, such as in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region.
And that, my readers, is Ethnic Federalism. Indeed EF has itself been referred to as 'Zenawism' after Meles Zenawi, leader of the EPRDF and Prime Minister of Ethiopia from 1991 until his death in 2012.
However the idea itself is actually not new, indeed, it was essentially the system in Yugoslavia until the 1990s, and is what the Archduke Franz Ferdinand proposed for the Austro-Hungarian Empire before his assassination in Sarajevo. Here in China, there is a similar system whereby the largest of the country's minority groups have their own Autonomous Regions.
Ethnic 'Federalism' under a De Facto Dictatorship
Ethnic Federalism had its critics from the beginning. There are, for example, both the former Monarchists and former Derg supporters, who, having ruled Ethiopia has an Amhara dominated Unitary state, have argued that the new system is a cynical break up of the country for the purposes of 'Divide and Rule' by the new regime.
Then you've also had the ethnic nationalists, many former allies of the EPRDF during the Civil War, such as the Oromo Liberation Front, who want full independence for their ethnicities and not to be part of any Ethiopia at all.
And neither of these opponents, nor any other opposition party, were given a fair shot at winning power since the elections since 1991 have not been free or fair - the EPRDF have been no more democratic, it seems, than either the Monarchy or the Derg before them.
And, to top it all off, the governing coalition, ostensibly a coalition of all the ethnicities, has in practice been dominated by its ethnic Tigray wing - the country's government had gone from being dominated by one ethnic group to be being dominated by another.
Thus, the resentments and protests against the EPRDF, which only intensified after Zenawi's death in 2012, were not just pro-Democracy but also increasingly anti-Tigray.
And a major cause of resentment for the Oromos in particular was a government plan to expand the territory of the city state of Addis Ababa into neighboring territory belonging to Oromia, a plan which was eventually dropped but either way, the Oromos were perhaps the ethnicity with the greatest grievance.
The ethnic protests by multiple ethnic groups culminated in 2016 and were met with Government Repression - Live Ammunition and a State of Emergency but eventually led to the resignation of Zenawi's successor and Abiy Ahmed's predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn.
The governing coalition knew it needed a change of direction and thus Abiy Ahmed, himself an ethnic Oromo, was elected its leader and duly became the new Prime Minister - and so the miracles listed at the front have unfolded since then.
So can Ethnic Federalism work now?
Federalism, which is, after all, about the states and the central government sharing power, means nothing if it's all a Dictatorship.
Without Democracy or political freedom, you can't have real autonomy.
Without the rule of law and the separation of powers between different branches of government, you can hardly have any real sharing of power between different layers of government.
So, that, readers, has been the problem for the past 27 years.
On the 18th of June, the Prime Minister announced that there would be a commission to review the system of Ethnic Federalism, perhaps suggesting that there is a possibility that of it being scrapped in favour of a different model.
I am of course not an Ethiopian, but as an amateur observer, I personally see nothing wrong with Ethnic Federalism in principle. Sure there are some problems that go with it, such as the possibility of border disputes, but the biggest problem has not been the principle but the practice.
And Ethnic Federalism does have its advantages. Why shouldn't each ethnic group have their own unit, their own 'country within a country' where they are autonomous? Certainly the Oromo people seemed to be proud of their own Oromia otherwise they wouldn't have been so angry at the idea of the City State of Addis Ababa encroaching upon it.
So now that Ethiopia looks like it's embracing genuine democracy, if I were Ethiopian I would want Ethnic Federalism to be continued, so that it can be allowed to run as it's supposed to - with genuine freedom and autonomy.
In that time, he has so far:
- Released thousands of political prisoners, including opposition leaders who were on Death Row.
- Made concessions that have brought real peace with Eritrea for the first time in two decades
- Ended numerous authoritarian laws which cracked down on descent,
- Promised to allow private citizens to buy shares in state owned companies,
- Admitted to his governing coalition having used torture before he came to office,
- When meeting with opposition leaders, talked about the need for a true multi-party system as well as arguing that his own job should have term limits.
And now, numerous Ethiopians abroad in the West have decided their homeland is now good enough for them to return.
So now that the country's political situation has improved so drastically, could Ethiopia's governing principle of Ethnic Federalism actually become a model, that is when it is applied with real Democracy? And just what is Ethnic Federalism?
Some History
Ethiopia, much like India, Yugoslavia, or the former Austro-Hungarian Empire, is a multi-ethnic, multi-national and multi-lingual country. However, it has only been a Federation since 1991, when the country's Soviet backed Communist Regime , the Derg, was overthrown by a coalition of rebel forces from different ethnic groups.
Until then, both under the Monarchy (pre-1974) and the Derg, Ethiopia was essentially a Unitary Empire, dominated by the Amharas who make up 26% of the population, the ethnic group who created and expanded the Empire in the first place. Amharic has thus been the country's official language and Lingua Franca, just as German was in the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
However, in 1991, the Civil War which had seen a multitude of different ethnic nationalist rebels fighting the Derg, ended when a rebel coalition called the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), cooperating with other forces, seized the capital, Addis Ababa.
It was this group, formally a coalition of different ethnic groupings but dominated by their Tigray coalition parter (the Tigrays being 6% of the country's overall population) who, upon seizing power, decided that the country was to be a Federation of different states, just like the US or Canada.
 |
| Federal Ethiopia since 1991, divided into its different ethnic states. |
Smaller ethnic groups, on the other hand, got to share states with other small ethnic groups, such as in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Region.
And that, my readers, is Ethnic Federalism. Indeed EF has itself been referred to as 'Zenawism' after Meles Zenawi, leader of the EPRDF and Prime Minister of Ethiopia from 1991 until his death in 2012.
However the idea itself is actually not new, indeed, it was essentially the system in Yugoslavia until the 1990s, and is what the Archduke Franz Ferdinand proposed for the Austro-Hungarian Empire before his assassination in Sarajevo. Here in China, there is a similar system whereby the largest of the country's minority groups have their own Autonomous Regions.
Ethnic 'Federalism' under a De Facto Dictatorship
Ethnic Federalism had its critics from the beginning. There are, for example, both the former Monarchists and former Derg supporters, who, having ruled Ethiopia has an Amhara dominated Unitary state, have argued that the new system is a cynical break up of the country for the purposes of 'Divide and Rule' by the new regime.
Then you've also had the ethnic nationalists, many former allies of the EPRDF during the Civil War, such as the Oromo Liberation Front, who want full independence for their ethnicities and not to be part of any Ethiopia at all.
And neither of these opponents, nor any other opposition party, were given a fair shot at winning power since the elections since 1991 have not been free or fair - the EPRDF have been no more democratic, it seems, than either the Monarchy or the Derg before them.
And, to top it all off, the governing coalition, ostensibly a coalition of all the ethnicities, has in practice been dominated by its ethnic Tigray wing - the country's government had gone from being dominated by one ethnic group to be being dominated by another.
Thus, the resentments and protests against the EPRDF, which only intensified after Zenawi's death in 2012, were not just pro-Democracy but also increasingly anti-Tigray.
And a major cause of resentment for the Oromos in particular was a government plan to expand the territory of the city state of Addis Ababa into neighboring territory belonging to Oromia, a plan which was eventually dropped but either way, the Oromos were perhaps the ethnicity with the greatest grievance.
The ethnic protests by multiple ethnic groups culminated in 2016 and were met with Government Repression - Live Ammunition and a State of Emergency but eventually led to the resignation of Zenawi's successor and Abiy Ahmed's predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn.
The governing coalition knew it needed a change of direction and thus Abiy Ahmed, himself an ethnic Oromo, was elected its leader and duly became the new Prime Minister - and so the miracles listed at the front have unfolded since then.
So can Ethnic Federalism work now?
Federalism, which is, after all, about the states and the central government sharing power, means nothing if it's all a Dictatorship.
Without Democracy or political freedom, you can't have real autonomy.
Without the rule of law and the separation of powers between different branches of government, you can hardly have any real sharing of power between different layers of government.
So, that, readers, has been the problem for the past 27 years.
On the 18th of June, the Prime Minister announced that there would be a commission to review the system of Ethnic Federalism, perhaps suggesting that there is a possibility that of it being scrapped in favour of a different model.
I am of course not an Ethiopian, but as an amateur observer, I personally see nothing wrong with Ethnic Federalism in principle. Sure there are some problems that go with it, such as the possibility of border disputes, but the biggest problem has not been the principle but the practice.
And Ethnic Federalism does have its advantages. Why shouldn't each ethnic group have their own unit, their own 'country within a country' where they are autonomous? Certainly the Oromo people seemed to be proud of their own Oromia otherwise they wouldn't have been so angry at the idea of the City State of Addis Ababa encroaching upon it.
So now that Ethiopia looks like it's embracing genuine democracy, if I were Ethiopian I would want Ethnic Federalism to be continued, so that it can be allowed to run as it's supposed to - with genuine freedom and autonomy.
No comments:
Post a Comment